URBANA — A University of Illinois election analysis site is predicting Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. “Election Analytics” is a website put together by a professor and students that uses polling information. Those numbers change on a daily basis. And in the last few days, Donald Trump has been trying to make a comeback.
The site breaks down numbers from various polls with an algorithm to show where the electoral college votes will go. Lately between 10 and 20 new polls have been added to the mix every day. Sheldon Jacobson, who created the program, says there’s going to be a point where the numbers will be close, but the probability of Trump winning will be very small. But he says there’s a simple reason for that.
“There is this fortress of electoral college states that Hillary Clinton is holding on to,” said Jacobson. “Unless he can get past at least one of them, like Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, he can’t win the presidency.”
Jacobson says the popular votes may make it look closer than it is. With Wednesday’s numbers, he says Trump may get 265 electoral votes, but you need 270 to win.
Millions of voters have already locked in their picks with early voting. Jacobson says that makes their polling numbers more precise as they get closer to Tuesday.
It looks unlikely that we’ll see a republican in the White House in January, but it’s not impossible. Trump has a 1 in 50 chance at winning with Wednesday’s numbers. That’s about the same likelihood of seeing a tie.
To see the numbers for yourself, click here.