WASHINGTON, D.C. (WCIA) — With U.S. and global grain supplies rather tight, the grain market is focused on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimates of how many corn and soybean acres have been planted. It’s one of USDA’s biggest reports of the year and it was released at 11 a.m. on Thursday.
In March, farmers told USDA they would plant about 89.5 million acres of corn and about 91 million acres of soybeans. But planting delays from inclement weather, shortages of grain around the world and many other issues have pushed and pulled on what actually has been planted.
USDA has asked farmers for their corn and soybean acres. The grain trade is expecting just under 90 million acres of corn and about 90.5 million acres of soybeans, slightly more corn and slightly less soybeans that what was projected in March. But the real question is how the markets tend to react to the data. It’s not uncommon to see wide price swings when this data is released. Given the fact the current market is starved for fresh fundamental news, the reaction we may see could be exaggerated and limit immediate market participation.
Percentagewise, corn futures tend to see a big reaction to the June 30th report. The average move on the day of the report is four percent, which would equate to roughly 30 cents this year. There is no well-defined direction in corn movement though, with futures increasing in seven years and decreasing in eight years. What is more interesting is that a week after the report corn, futures were trading lower in 10 of the last 15 years.
The average percentage of the soybean move in reaction to the June report is less on a percentage, but wider in the value. The average move in the market is two percent; this year, that would be nearly 34 cents. Soybeans have a more defined trend with futures rising in 11 years and declining in four years. Same as with corn, soybeans tend to be trading lower a week after the release.
The USDA also issued its Quarterly Grain Stocks report. The market is looking for corn supplies to rise from 4.1 billion bushels a year ago up to 4.33 billion bushels today. Analysts are expecting to see soybean supplies rise to 965 million bushels, up from year-ago levels of 769 million bushels.